16 March – Franz Dietrich* “Fully Bayesian Aggregation” (Hosted by Marcus Pivato)* CNRS and Paris School of Economics
1PM GMT: 8 AM New York, 2PM Paris, 4PM PM in Moscow, 10PM PM in Seoul, and 2 AM (next day) in Auckland
Abstract: Can a group be an orthodox rational agent? This requires the group’s aggregate preferences to follow expected utility (static rationality) and to evolve by Bayesian updating (dynamic rationality). Group rationality is possible, but the only preference aggregation rules which achieve it (and are minimally Paretian and continuous) are the linear-geometric rules, which combine individual values linearly and individual beliefs geometrically. Linear-geometric preference aggregation contrasts with classic linear-linear preference aggregation, which combines both values and beliefs linearly, and achieves only static rationality. Our characterisation of linear-geometric preference aggregation implies as corollaries a characterisation of linear value aggregation (Harsanyi’s Theorem) and a characterisation of geometric belief aggregation.
Meeting ID: 999 2159 6809Passcode: 28172214