Crime and Political Effects of a Concealed Carry Ban in Brazil

Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College)

Resumo

This paper studies the effects of legislation in Brazil that banned concealed carry nationwide in 2003, and provided for a voter referendum 22 months later regarding whether to ban the sale of all firearms. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that gun-related homicides decreased by 12.2 percent, with the reduction especially pronounced in high-crime areas and among black males. Other crimes involving guns also declined. There is no evidence of substitution effect as non-gun-related homicides were not affected. Two pieces of evidence suggest that the mechanism explaining this result is a decrease in the number of people carrying gun in response to the legislation: first, the number of ilegal gun carrying decreased and second, only gun-related homicides taking place outside the residence were reduced. Analysis of the subsequente voter referendum, which was defeated by a wide margin, shows stronger support for the complete weapons ban in the areas more affected by gun violence.

Palavras-chave: Gun laws; Right-to-carry concealed weapons; Gun-related death; Voting Behavior.

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