New policy brief by Karina Bugarin: “Crisis Control: The Use of Simulations for Policy Decision-Making” in the Policy Center for the New South

Karina Bugarin (Secretariat for Economic Development, State of São Paulo, Brazil) has published the policy brief “Crisis Control: The Use of Simulations for Policy Decision-Making” in the Policy Center for the New South.

Policy brief PB 20-38, coauthored with Eduardo A. Haddad (FEA/USP) “explores the use of simulations in policy decision- making in the Brazilian State of São Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic” and highlights the fundamental “need for timely decision-making and the role evidence plays in guiding high-level decision-makers amidst a crisis”.

Please read the executive summary below and the entire policy brief here.

https://www.policycenter.ma/publications/crisis-control-use-simulations-policy-decisionmaking

Executive Summary

In face of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, use of evidence may be key to timely and precise decision-making.This policy brief explores the use of simulations in policy decision- making in the Brazilian State of São Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. We draw briefly on the literature on evidence-based public policy to highlight the exacerbated need for timely decision-making and the role evidence plays in guiding high-level decision- makers amidst a crisis. We present examples of simulations that can substantiate top- level decision making, such as the assessment of the potential daily sectoral and regional economic costs of control strategies for mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Finally, the essential contextual elements of governance for informational use are provided as a set of recommended tools for policymakers.

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Novos papers por Fernando Meneguin no JOTA e no ConJur: Moratória e serviços essenciais; segurança jurídica para gestores municipais

Fernando Meneguin (IDP e Senado) publicou recentemente dois artigos com importantes reflexões sobre questões suscitadas pelo pandemia do novo coronavírus.

O artigo “Moratória e serviços essenciais: medida bem-intencionada com efeitos indesejáveis”, em coautoria com Amanda Flávio de Oliveira (UnB), publicado no JOTA chama a atenção para a importância de tomadas de decisões a partir de “um exercício sóbrio de busca de solução racional e baseado em evidências científicas”.

No que diz respeito à moratória, ou ainda, “às inúmeras proposições legislativas, originárias dos três níveis da federação, em que se busca instituir uma prorrogação legal do prazo concedido pelo credor a seu devedor para o pagamento de uma dívida, alterando, nesse ponto, os termos do contrato originalmente pactuado”, chama a atenção para a distância que pode existir entre boas intenções e respectivos resultados.

O artigo enfatiza a importância da Teoria de Desenhos de Mecanismos, que estabelece essa ligação entre objetivos e resultados partindo do fato de que os agentes reagem a incentivos.

Leia a íntegra do artigo aqui.

Moratória e serviços essenciais: medida bem-intencionada com efeitos indesejáveis

O artigo “A salvaguarda da segurança jurídica para os gestores municipais”, em coautoria com Márcio Macedo Conrado, publicado no ConJur, analisa a realidade do gestor municipal em ambiente de pandemia em que é levado a tomar uma série de decisões excepcionais: “Os gestores, dentro desse cenário, estão sendo levados a readequar, suspender ou rescindir contratos de várias espécies (artigos 65, inciso II, “d”, e 78, incisos XII a XVII, da Lei 8.666), redirecionar recursos para o combate ao vírus e determinar novas contratações, existindo sempre o receio de como seus atos serão entendidos pelos órgãos de controle e fiscalização, principalmente quando estão sendo disparadas várias recomendações do Ministério Público Estadual, do Ministério Público Federal e do Ministério Público do Trabalho.”

Diante desse contexto inesperado, o artigo orienta quanto às cautelas que devem ser seguidas, bem como quanto à legislação existente que apoia a adoção de medidas inovadoras para lidar com a crise.

Leia a íntegra do artigo aqui.

https://www.conjur.com.br/2020-abr-15/conrado-meneguin-seguranca-juridica-gestores-municipais

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New paper by Rodrigo Schneider: “Political determinants of investment in water and sanitation: Evidence from Brazilian elections” in Economic Letters

Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College and EPRG) has published the paper: “Political determinants of investment in water and sanitation: Evidence from Brazilian elections” in Economic Letters.

The paper, coauthored with Evan Plous Kresch shows that “mayors of municipalities with self-run water and sanitation companies aligned with the state governor significantly decreased investment in their WS systems compared to unaligned mayors”.

Please check the entire paper here. Please find the abstract below:

This paper studies the extent to which political determinants play a role in the investment decisions for water and sanitation (WS) services. We focus on the political alignment between local and state officials using the outcomes of close mayoral elections in Brazil. We find that mayors of municipalities with self-run WS companies aligned with the state governor significantly decreased investment in their WS systems compared to unaligned mayors, providing evidence that politics plays a role in the running of public utilities.

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New paper by Rodrigo Schneider: “Winners and Losers of the Ballot: Electronic vs. Traditional Paper Voting Systems in Brazil” in Latin American Politics and Society

Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College and EPRG) has published the paper: “Winners and Losers of the Ballot: Electronic vs. Traditional Paper Voting Systems in Brazil” in Latin American Politics and Society.

The paper shows that the introduction of electronic voting in Brazil let to a concentration of voter shares among viable candidates, away from nonviable ones.

Please check the entire paper here. The access is free for a short period. Please find the abstract below:

Scholars concur that free and fair elections are essential for proper democratic functioning, but our understanding of the political effects of democratic voting systems is incomplete. This article mitigates the gap by exploiting the gradual transformation of voting systems and ballot structures in Brazil’s 1998 executive elections to study the relationship between voting systems and viable and nonviable candidates’ vote shares, using regression discontinuity design. It finds that the introduction of electronic voting concentrated vote shares among viable candidates and thus exhibited electoral bias. We posit that this result occurred because viable candidates were better able to communicate the information that electronic voters needed to cast valid ballots than were their nonviable counterparts. The article uses survey data to demonstrate that electronic voters responded to changes in ballot design and internalized the information viable candidates made available to them.

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Working paper 101 available now!

Motivação Partidária nas Transferências Voluntárias da União: O papel do Legislativo Federal

Fernanda L. Marciniuk, Maurício S. Bugarin & Débora C. Ferreira

(UnB)

Este artigo  investiga a influência do alinhamento partidário entre atores políticos das esferas federal e municipal na determinação  das  transferências voluntárias  federais aos  municípios, com especial enfoque na identidade partidária entre deputados federais e prefeitos, a partir  do indicador de Quociente Locacional de Bendavid-Val. A análise econométrica confirma o efeito positivo e significante dessa identidade partidária, indicando o importante papel desempenhado pelos deputados federais na distribuição partidária de  transferências  intergovernamentais. A principal  contribuição  desse trabalho  é  ir  além  do  tradicional  alinhamento  entre  prefeito e Presidente  da  República  e  investigar  o  papel  dos  parlamentares  federais  na  distribuição partidárias das transferências voluntárias.

Palavras Chaves: Transferências Voluntárias; Convênios Públicos; Quociente Locacional de Bendavid-Val; Identificação partidária; Transferências partidárias do Legislativo.

 

The Economics and Politics Research Group started publishing its working papers on June 12, 2013. Please check here every week for a new working paper.

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Working paper 100 available now!

The Paradox of Concessions in Developing Countries: A game-theoretic investigation of airport concessions in Brazil

Mauricio Bugarin (UnB) & Frederico Ribeiro (ANAC)

 

After a first wave of privatizations in Latin America in the 1980s, the return of conservative governments in the region points to a renewed cycle of concessions. This paper presents a game-theoretic analysis of airport concessions that explicitly takes into account the two distinct, interacting phases of the concession mechanism: the concession auction and the operation game. The concession contract sets an investment to be made during operation, but the concessionaire may benefit from underinvesting and renegotiating the concession contract with the regulator. The paper shows that the weaker a country’s institutions are, the higher is the probability of underinvestment, and the higher are the auction equilibrium concession fees. This is the “Paradox of Concession”: the more successful the auction is, the less likely the operation will be effective. This research proposes a new mechanism based on benefits for investment rather than punishment for underinvestment with the following properties: It is efficient; frees the government from the weak-institutions problem; increases auction bids; eliminates the “paradox of concessions”; and can be fine-tuned to reduce the likelihood of underinvestment.

Keywords: Game theory, applied mechanism design, airport concession, privatization in Latin America.

 

The Economics and Politics Research Group started publishing its working papers on June 12, 2013. Please check here every week for a new working paper.

 

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HOJE: Segundo e último dia do 7o. EPRG

Atenção: Não percam hoje o segundo dia do Sétimo Encontro Anual do EPRG!

Vejam o convite e o programa ATUALIZADO EM 15.12.2019 abaixo, ou clique aqui.

 

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Contagem regressiva: 1 dia para o 7o. EPRG

Atenção: Falta apenas 1 dia para o início do Sétimo Encontro Anual do EPRG.

Vejam o convite e o programa ATUALIZADO EM 15.12.2019 abaixo, ou clique aqui.

 

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Contagem regressiva: 7 dias para o 7o. EPRG

Atenção: Faltam 7 dias para o início do Sétimo Encontro Anual do EPRG.

Vejam o convite e o programa detalhado abaixo, ou clique aqui.

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Seminário EPRG: KAZUHIRO HARA (EPGE-FGV), Sexta 6/12/2019, 12h FACE/UnB


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